Abstract
This study has shown that there is a large potential to avoid wheat production losses through global efforts to reduce emissions of non-methane ozone precursors. In addition, global efforts to reduce methane concentrations could avoid additional wheat production losses due to the role of methane as an ozone precursor. Ex-post analysis on scenarios used within the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - West (EMEP-MSC-West) model revealed that within the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region (excluding North America and Israel) in 2050 using the LOW future emission scenario, the reduction in ozone as a consequence of reducing global non-methane precursor emissions showed avoided wheat production losses of 6.4 million tonnes compared to that with current legislation. For the EU27 countries this was 3.1 million tonnes of wheat, equating to a value of approximately €675 million. Reducing both non-methane and methane ozone precursors globally have avoided wheat production losses in the UNECE region in 2050 totalling 9.0 million tonnes, compared to that calculated from emissions in current legislation. Within EU27 this was 4.4 million tonnes of wheat, equating to a value of approximately €976 million. Within the UNECE region (excluding North America and Israel) the relative benefits of additional reductions in non-methane emissions within the region, non-methane emissions in the rest of the world, and global efforts to reduce methane emissions, were approximately equal. This demonstrates the benefits from reducing regional non-methane emissions, global non-methane emissions and global methane as contributing factors to avoiding crop yield losses due to their role in ozone formation.
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Claims 5
Claim · model-written summary
Global non-methane precursor reductions in the LOW scenario avoided 6.4 million tonnes of wheat production losses in the UNECE region in 2050 compared with current legislation.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivume0 - Treatment
- reducing global non-methane precursor emissionse0
- Outcome
- avoided wheat production lossese0
- Direction
- avoidede0
- Value
- 6.4 million tonnese0
- Comparator
- current legislatione0
- Setting
- Europet0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the reduction in ozone as a consequence of reducing global non-methane precursor emissions showed avoided wheat production losses of 6.4 million tonnes compared to that with current legislation”
t0“Global efforts addressing methane emissions is a key factor to further reducing ozone-induced yield losses of crops in Europe”
Claim · model-written summary
The same scenario avoided 3.1 million tonnes of wheat losses in EU27, worth approximately €675 million.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- wheate0
- Direction
- decreaseinferrede0
- Value
- 3.1 million tonnese0
- Qualifier
- approximately €675 millione0
- Setting
- EU27 countriese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“For the EU27 countries this was 3.1 million tonnes of wheat, equating to a value of approximately €675 million”
t0“Global efforts addressing methane emissions is a key factor to further reducing ozone-induced yield losses of crops in Europe”
Claim · model-written summary
Joint global methane and non-methane reductions avoided 9.0 million tonnes of wheat losses in UNECE in 2050 versus current legislation.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- Reducing both non-methane and methane ozone precursors globallye0
- Outcome
- wheat production lossese0
- Direction
- avoidede0
- Value
- 9.0 million tonnese0
- Comparator
- emissions in current legislatione0
- Setting
- UNECE regione0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Reducing both non-methane and methane ozone precursors globally have avoided wheat production losses in the UNECE region in 2050 totalling 9.0 million tonnes, compared to that calculated from emissions in current legislation”
Claim · model-written summary
Joint reductions avoided 4.4 million tonnes of wheat losses in EU27, worth approximately €976 million.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- wheate0
- Direction
- decreaseinferrede0
- Value
- 4.4 million tonnese0
- Qualifier
- approximately €976 millione0
- Setting
- EU27e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Within EU27 this was 4.4 million tonnes of wheat, equating to a value of approximately €976 million”
t0“Global efforts addressing methane emissions is a key factor to further reducing ozone-induced yield losses of crops in Europe”
Claim · model-written summary
Additional regional non-methane, rest-of-world non-methane, and global methane reductions had approximately equal relative benefits in UNECE.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume1
- Outcome
- relative benefitse0
- Direction
- approximately equale0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the relative benefits of additional reductions in non-methane emissions within the region, non-methane emissions in the rest of the world, and global efforts to reduce methane emissions, were approximately equal”
t0“Global efforts addressing methane emissions is a key factor to further reducing ozone-induced yield losses of crops in Europe”
e1“avoided wheat production losses of 6.4 million tonnes”
The same questions in other papers
ozone · yield · Triticum aestivum (wheat)Results differ
6 papers in the same direction as this paper · 63 in the opposite direction
- negative
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See all 70 papers →Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.