Abstract
Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010-2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.
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Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
Modeled ozone impacts on wheat yield were especially large in humid rain-fed and irrigated production areas.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivume0 - Outcome
- ozone impacts on wheat yielde0
- Direction
- particularly largee0
- Setting
- humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countriese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia)”
Claim · model-written summary
Modeled ozone reduced wheat yield by 9.9% in the northern hemisphere.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- ozonee0
- Outcome
- wheat yieldse0
- Direction
- reducese0
- Value
- 9.9%e0
- Setting
- northern hemispheree0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere”
t0“Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production”
Claim · model-written summary
Modeled ozone reduced wheat yield by 6.2% in the southern hemisphere.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- ozonet0
- Outcome
- wheat productiont0
- Direction
- reducese1
- Value
- 6.2%e0
- Setting
- southern hemispheree0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“6.2% in the southern hemisphere”
t0“Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production”
e1“ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere”
Claim · model-written summary
The modeled ozone burden corresponded to about 85 Tg of lost wheat grain.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- lost graine0
- Value
- 85 Tge0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain”
t0“Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production”
Claim · model-written summary
Modeled production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance were 50% higher than in developed countries.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- Total production lossese0
- Direction
- highere0
- Value
- 50%e0
- Comparator
- developed countriese0
- Setting
- developing countries receiving Official Development Assistancee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries”
t0“Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production”
Claim · model-written summary
Ozone could reduce potential wheat yield gains from increased irrigation because irrigation raises ozone uptake.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- added irrigatione0
- Outcome
- potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usagee0
- Direction
- reducee0
- Qualifier
- increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutante0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant”
t0“Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production”
Claim · model-written summary
The authors conclude that air pollution mitigation could help achieve the stated food security goal.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- mitigation of air pollution in a changing climatee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG”
t0“Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production”
The same questions in other papers
ozone · yield · Triticum aestivum (wheat)Results differ
62 papers in the same direction as this paper · 7 in the opposite direction
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