Claim · model-written summary
The optimized MaxEnt model for P. nicotianae distribution reached an AUC of 0.959.
- Taxon
- Phytophthora nicotianae
Phytophthora nicotianaet0 - Outcome
- AUCe0
- Value
- 0.959e0
Verbatim
e0“The optimized model (AUC = 0.959) identified eight key environmental predictors”
t0“Phytophthora nicotianae”
Title
The Potential Distribution of Phytophthora nicotianae in China on the Basis of MaxEnt Model Analysis
Chaolong Bi; Minggang Li; Hua Chen; et al. Ecology and Evolution 2025. doi:10.1002/ece3.72487
Other claims from this paper (9)
- Observation The model identified eight key environmental predictors of P. nicotianae suitability, including minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation and elevation.
- Observation Suitability for P. nicotianae increased notably when the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) exceeded 0°C.
- Observation Suitability for P. nicotianae increased notably at elevations from 800 to 1500 m.
- Observation Suitability for P. nicotianae increased notably when both precipitation of the wettest month (bio13) and of the driest month (bio14) fell within specific precipitation intervals.
- Observation Future projections under four CMIP6 scenarios showed an overall expansion of suitable areas for P. nicotianae.
- Observation The largest suitable area for P. nicotianae, 165.54 x 10^4 km2, was projected under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.
- Observation Projections showed a northeastward shift of the habitat centroid of P. nicotianae.
- Observation Predicted pathogen suitability overlapped 28.35% with tobacco cultivation, mainly in growing regions such as Yunnan and Guizhou.
- Mechanism The authors conclude that temperature and moisture play a critical role in shaping the ecological niche of P. nicotianae.