Abstract
The US Corn Belt supports agroecosystems that flourish in a temperate climate regime that could see significant changes in the next few decades. Because Wisconsin is situated on the northern, cooler fringes of this region, it may be the beneficiary of a warmer climate that could help support higher corn and soybean yields. Here we show that trends in precipitation and temperature during the growing season from 1976–2006 explained 40 % and 35 % of county corn and soybean yield trends, respectively. Using county level yield information combined with climate data, we determined that both corn and soybean yield trends were enhanced in counties that experienced a trend towards cooler and wetter conditions during the summer. Our results suggest that for each additional degree ( ◦C) of future warming during summer months, corn and soybean yields could potentially decrease by 13 % and 16%, respectively, whereas if modest increases in total summer precipitation (i.e. 50 mm) were to occur, yields may be boosted by 5–10%, counteracting a portion of the negative effects associated with increased temperature. While northern US Corn Belt regions such as Wisconsin may benefit from a warmer climate regime and management changes that lengthen the crop-growing period in spring and autumn, mid- to high-latitude crop productivity may be challenged by additional summertime warming unless adaptive measures are taken.
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Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
Growing-season precipitation and temperature trends from 1976–2006 explained 40 % of county corn yield trends in Wisconsin.
- Taxon
- corn
Zea mays subsp. mayse0 - Treatment
- trends in precipitation and temperaturee0
- Outcome
- yield trendse0
- Value
- 40 %e0
- Setting
- Wisconsint0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Wisconsin”
e0“trends in precipitation and temperature during the growing season from 1976–2006 explained 40 % and 35 % of county corn and soybean yield trends, respectively”
Claim · model-written summary
Growing-season precipitation and temperature trends from 1976–2006 explained 35 % of county soybean yield trends in Wisconsin.
- Taxon
- soybean
Glycine maxe0 - Treatment
- trends in precipitation and temperaturee0
- Outcome
- yield trendse0
- Value
- 35 %e0
- Setting
- Wisconsint0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Wisconsin”
e0“trends in precipitation and temperature during the growing season from 1976–2006 explained 40 % and 35 % of county corn and soybean yield trends, respectively”
Claim · model-written summary
Corn yield trends were enhanced in Wisconsin counties with a summer trend towards cooler and wetter conditions.
- Taxon
- cornZea mays subsp. mayse0
- Treatment
- a trend towards cooler and wetter conditions during the summere0
- Outcome
- yield trendse0
- Direction
- enhancede0
- Setting
- Wisconsint0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Wisconsin”
e0“both corn and soybean yield trends were enhanced in counties that experienced a trend towards cooler and wetter conditions during the summer”
Claim · model-written summary
Soybean yield trends were enhanced in Wisconsin counties with a summer trend towards cooler and wetter conditions.
- Taxon
- soybeanGlycine maxe0
- Treatment
- a trend towards cooler and wetter conditions during the summere0
- Outcome
- yield trendse0
- Direction
- enhancede0
- Setting
- Wisconsint0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Wisconsin”
e0“both corn and soybean yield trends were enhanced in counties that experienced a trend towards cooler and wetter conditions during the summer”
Claim · model-written summary
Each additional degree of future summer warming could decrease corn yield by 13 %.
- Taxon
- cornZea mays subsp. mayse0
- Treatment
- future warming during summer monthse0
- Outcome
- yieldse0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- 13 %e0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“of future warming during summer months, corn and soybean yields could potentially decrease by 13 % and 16%, respectively”
Claim · model-written summary
Each additional degree of future summer warming could decrease soybean yield by 16%.
- Taxon
- soybeanGlycine maxe0
- Treatment
- future warming during summer monthse0
- Outcome
- yieldse0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- 16%e0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“of future warming during summer months, corn and soybean yields could potentially decrease by 13 % and 16%, respectively”
Claim · model-written summary
A modest increase in total summer precipitation of 50 mm could boost corn and soybean yields by 5–10%.
- Taxon
- corn and soybeanGlycine maxZea mays subsp. mayst0
- Treatment
- modest increases in total summer precipitation (i.e. 50 mm)e0
- Outcome
- yieldse0
- Direction
- boostede0
- Value
- 5–10%e0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“corn and soybean”
e0“if modest increases in total summer precipitation (i.e. 50 mm) were to occur, yields may be boosted by 5–10%”
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