Abstract
Projected global climate change may have a major influence on crop yield. The likely effects of climate change caused by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on rice yield in Iran were evaluated using a mechanistic growth model for rice, GSAC-rice, run-ning under a climate change scenario predicted for a doubled-CO2 (2xCO2) atmosphere by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) General Circulation Model (GCM). Simulations were run for two locations with contrasting climates, one in the north (Rasht) and one in the south (Ahwaz) of Iran. GFDL predicted that as a result of doubling CO2, temperature increases by 4.5 and 4.6 0C during the rice growing season in Rasht and Ahwaz, respectively. Changes in solar radiation are minor, but rainfall during the rice growing season decreases by 38.8 % (102 mm) for Rasht and 68.2 % (5.8 mm) for Ah-waz. It was predicted that doubling [CO2] alone increased rice yield by 30%, but that yield decreases by 3.7 and 11.6 % for each degree centigrade rise in temperature in Rasht and Ahwaz, respectively. As a result of the combined effect of both doubling [CO2] and the climate change accompanying it (predicted with GFDL), 8 % greater rice could be produced in Rasht, but irrigation needs would be increased dramatically by 57%. In Ah-waz (the south of Iran), rice production could be halved and might not even remain a vi-able option unless plant breeders are able to produce more heat tolerant rice cultivars. It was concluded that rice production in the north and south of the country would change dramatically.
Abstract from the paper’s OpenAlex record, shown for indexing and research. Copyright remains with the authors or the publisher. Read at the source ↗
The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.
Claims 6
Claim · model-written summary
Doubled carbon dioxide alone was predicted to increase rice yield by 30%.
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“It was predicted that doubling [CO2] alone increased rice yield by 30%”
Claim · model-written summary
Each degree of warming was predicted to decrease rice yield in Rasht by 3.7%.
- Taxon
- rice
Oryza sativat0 - Treatment
- each degree centigrade rise in temperaturee0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasese0
- Value
- 3.7e0
- Setting
- Rashte0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“yield decreases by 3.7 and 11.6 % for each degree centigrade rise in temperature in Rasht and Ahwaz, respectively.”
t0“Rice Cropping”
Claim · model-written summary
Each degree of warming was predicted to decrease rice yield in Ahwaz by 11.6%.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativat0
- Treatment
- each degree centigrade rise in temperaturee0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasese0
- Value
- 11.6 %e0
- Setting
- Ahwaze0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“yield decreases by 3.7 and 11.6 % for each degree centigrade rise in temperature in Rasht and Ahwaz, respectively.”
t0“Rice Cropping”
Claim · model-written summary
Combined doubled carbon dioxide and associated climate change projected 8% more rice production in Rasht.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativae0
- Treatment
- doubling [CO2] and the climate change accompanying itt1
- Outcome
- rice could be producede0
- Direction
- greatere0
- Value
- 8 %e0
- Setting
- Rashte0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“8 % greater rice could be produced in Rasht”
t1“As a result of the combined effect of both doubling [CO2] and the climate change accompanying it (predicted with GFDL), 8 % greater rice could be produced in Rasht”
Claim · model-written summary
The combined scenario projected a 57% increase in irrigation needs in Rasht.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativat0
- Treatment
- doubling [CO2] and the climate change accompanying itt1
- Outcome
- irrigation needse0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Value
- 57%e0
- Setting
- Rashtt1
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“irrigation needs would be increased dramatically by 57%”
t0“Rice Cropping”
t1“As a result of the combined effect of both doubling [CO2] and the climate change accompanying it (predicted with GFDL), 8 % greater rice could be produced in Rasht”
Claim · model-written summary
The climate scenario projected that rice production in Ah-waz could be halved.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativae0
- Treatment
- doubling [CO2] and the climate change accompanying itt1
- Outcome
- rice productione0
- Direction
- halvede0
- Setting
- Ah-waze0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“In Ah-waz (the south of Iran), rice production could be halved”
t1“As a result of the combined effect of both doubling [CO2] and the climate change accompanying it (predicted with GFDL), 8 % greater rice could be produced in Rasht”
The same questions in other papers
climate site · organism · Oryza sativa (rice)Positive and negative results
7 papers in the same direction as this paper · 1 in the opposite direction
- no effect
- positive
- positive
5 papers more in this group
See all 9 papers →co2 · organism · Oryza sativa (rice)Positive and negative results
6 papers in the same direction as this paper · 2 in the opposite direction
- negative
- negative
- positive
5 papers more in this group
See all 9 papers →co2 · yield · Oryza sativa (rice)Positive and negative results
130 papers in the same direction as this paper · 28 in the opposite direction
- negative
- negative
- negative
155 papers more in this group
See all 159 papers →climate site · yield · Oryza sativa (rice)Positive and negative results
61 papers in the same direction as this paper · 110 in the opposite direction
- positive
- positive
- positive
168 papers more in this group
See all 172 papers →Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.