Abstract
Fire blight is an infectious tree disease caused by the bacteria Erwinia amylovora that primarily aects apple and pear varieties. Current methods for reducing re blight infection are cutting o infected branches and using an antibiotic spray. In this paper we outline the economic impact of the disease in Canada and construct three models to investigate the spread of re blight throughout an orchard. The Original model is the most biologically accurate and examines infection through pollinator vectors and through the environment. We introduce two simplied models because of the complexity of the equations in the original model. These models allow for analysis of R0 values, which represent the reproductive ratio. These values were found using the Jacobian method and the next-generation method. Latin hypercube sampling was used to perform sensitivity analysis for each R0 to determine the signicance of each parameter in predicting the outcome of the disease. Analysis shows that both of the current control methods may have substantial impact in reducing the spread of re blight. To successfully control the spread of re blight, a more eective antibiotic
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Claims 1
Claim · model-written summary
Both current fire blight control methods (cutting off infected branches and antibiotic spray) may have substantial impact in reducing the spread of fire blight.
- Taxon
- apple and pear varieties
Malus domestica_Poirier_Fleurs_et_feuilles.jpg?width=60)
Pyrus communise0 - Treatment
- cutting o infected branches and using an antibiotic spraye1
- Interactor
- Erwinia amylovora
Erwinia amylovorae0pathogen - Outcome
- spread of re blighte2
- Direction
- reducinge2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
_Poirier_Fleurs_et_feuilles.jpg?width=500)
Verbatim
e0“Fire blight is an infectious tree disease caused by the bacteria Erwinia amylovora that primarily aects apple and pear varieties”
e1“Current methods for reducing re blight infection are cutting o infected branches and using an antibiotic spray”
e2“Analysis shows that both of the current control methods may have substantial impact in reducing the spread of re blight”
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