Abstract
With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)–Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during two different future periods (2031–2060 referred to as 40S and 2071–2100 referred to as 80S). Relative to the baseline period (1981–2010), the trends in mean daily temperature and radiation significantly increased across all stations under the future scenarios. Furthermore, the trends in precipitation increased under future climate scenarios. Due to climate change, the trend in wheat phenology significantly advanced. The early flowering and maturity dates shortened both the vegetative growth stage (VGP) and the whole growth period (WGP). As the advance in the days of maturity was more than that in flowering, the length of the reproductive growth stage (RGP) of spring wheat was shortened. However, as the advance in the date of maturity was less than that of flowering, the RGP of winter wheat was extended. When the increase in CO2 concentration under future climate scenarios was not considered, the trend in change in wheat production for the baseline declined. In contrast, under increased CO2 concentration, the trend in wheat yield increased for most of the stations (except for Nangong station) under future climatic conditions. Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET) decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios. As wheat yield increased with decreasing water consumption (as ET) under the future climatic conditions, water use efficiency (WUE) significantly improved in the future period.
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Claims 9
Claim · model-written summary
Future climate change significantly advanced wheat phenology.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivume0 - Treatment
- climate changee0
- Outcome
- wheat phenologye0
- Direction
- advancede0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Due to climate change, the trend in wheat phenology significantly advanced”
Claim · model-written summary
Earlier flowering and maturity shortened the vegetative and whole growth periods.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- early flowering and maturity datese0
- Outcome
- vegetative growth stage (VGP) and the whole growth period (WGP)e0
- Direction
- shortenede0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The early flowering and maturity dates shortened both the vegetative growth stage (VGP) and the whole growth period (WGP)”
t0“Wheat Production”
Claim · model-written summary
The reproductive growth stage of spring wheat shortened under future conditions.
- Taxon
- spring wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- reproductive growth stage (RGP)e0
- Direction
- shortenede0
Not reportedTreatmentComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the length of the reproductive growth stage (RGP) of spring wheat was shortened”
Claim · model-written summary
The reproductive growth stage of winter wheat extended under future conditions.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- RGPe0
- Direction
- extendede0
Not reportedTreatmentComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the RGP of winter wheat was extended”
Claim · model-written summary
Without increased CO2, wheat production declined relative to baseline.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- future climate scenariose0
- Outcome
- wheat productione0
- Direction
- declinede0
- Comparator
- baselinee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“When the increase in CO2 concentration under future climate scenarios was not considered, the trend in change in wheat production for the baseline declined”
Claim · model-written summary
With increased CO2, wheat yield rose at most stations except Nangong.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- increased CO2 concentratione0
- Outcome
- wheat yielde0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Qualifier
- except for Nangong statione0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“under increased CO2 concentration, the trend in wheat yield increased for most of the stations (except for Nangong station) under future climatic conditions”
Claim · model-written summary
Winter wheat evapotranspiration decreased at all stations under both scenarios.
- Taxon
- Winter wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- two future climate scenariose0
- Outcome
- evapotranspiration (ET)e0
- Direction
- decreasede0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET) decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios”
Claim · model-written summary
Spring wheat evapotranspiration decreased at all stations under both scenarios.
- Taxon
- spring wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- two future climate scenariose0
- Outcome
- evapotranspiration (ET)e0
- Direction
- decreasede0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET) decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios”
Claim · model-written summary
Wheat water use efficiency significantly improved in the future period.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- future periode0
- Outcome
- water use efficiency (WUE)e0
- Direction
- improvede0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“water use efficiency (WUE) significantly improved in the future period”
t0“Wheat Production”
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