Abstract
Climate change is projected to affect the atmospheric variables that control crop production in the Eastern United States (US). Given that changes in these variables over the next decades are currently unavoidable, crop production will need to adapt to the expected changes in order to prevent or reduce yield losses. The main objectives of this study were: 1) to evaluate the effects of climate change on yields in rainfed corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) rotation systems in the Eastern US and 2) to test two soil conservation practices—no tillage and winter cover cropping with rye (Secale cereale L.)—for their effectiveness as climate change adaptations in these systems. We used the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model to simulate corn-soybean rotation systems in the future (2041‒2070) at nine land grant university research farms located throughout the Eastern US corn-soybean production belt from New York to Georgia. The simulated effects of climate change on yields varied depending on the climate model used, ranging from decreases to increases. Mean corn yields experienced decreases of 15‒51% and increases of 14‒85% while mean soybean yields experienced decreases of 7.6‒13% and increases of 22‒170%. Yield decreases were most common under the climate model predicting the highest increase in temperature and a reduction in precipitation, whereas yield increases were most common in the climate models predicting either a relatively small increase in temperature or a relatively large increase in precipitation. In many cases, the effects of climate change on yields worsened with time within the 30-year future period. The effects of climate change differed between the northern, central, and southern regions of the Eastern US, generally improving with latitude. Climate change generally affected corn yields more negatively or less positively than it did soybean yields. No tillage and rye cover cropping did not serve as effective climate change adaptations in regards to corn or soybean yields. In fact, planting rye after corn and soybeans reduced mean corn yields by 3.1‒28% relative to the control (no cover crop). We speculate that this yield decrease occurred because the rye cover crop reduced the amount of soil water available to the following corn crop.
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The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.
Claims 8
Claim · model-written summary
Yield decreases were most common in the hottest, drier climate model.
Verbatim
e0“Yield decreases were most common under the climate model predicting the highest increase in temperature and a reduction in precipitation”
t0“Corn-Soybean”
e1“The effects of climate change differed between the northern, central, and southern regions of the Eastern US, generally improving with latitude.”
Claim · model-written summary
Yield increases were most common in models with less warming or more precipitation.
Verbatim
e0“yield increases were most common in the climate models predicting either a relatively small increase in temperature or a relatively large increase in precipitation.”
t0“Corn-Soybean”
e1“The effects of climate change differed between the northern, central, and southern regions of the Eastern US, generally improving with latitude.”
Claim · model-written summary
Climate effects on yields often worsened over the future period.
Verbatim
e0“In many cases, the effects of climate change on yields worsened with time within the 30-year future period.”
t0“Corn-Soybean”
Claim · model-written summary
Climate effects on yield generally improved with latitude.
Verbatim
e0“The effects of climate change differed between the northern, central, and southern regions of the Eastern US, generally improving with latitude.”
t0“Corn-Soybean”
Claim · model-written summary
Climate change affected corn yields more negatively or less positively than soybean yields.
- Taxon
- corn
Zea mays subsp. mayse0 - Outcome
- corn yieldse0
- Direction
- more negatively or less positivelye0
- Comparator
- soybean yieldse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Climate change generally affected corn yields more negatively or less positively than it did soybean yields.”
Claim · model-written summary
No tillage was ineffective as a yield adaptation for corn and soybean.
- Taxon
- corn or soybean
Glycine maxZea mays subsp. mayse0 - Treatment
- No tillagee0
- Outcome
- yieldse0
Not reportedComparatorDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“No tillage and rye cover cropping did not serve as effective climate change adaptations in regards to corn or soybean yields.”
Claim · model-written summary
Rye cover cropping was ineffective as a yield adaptation for corn and soybean.
- Taxon
- corn or soybeanGlycine maxZea mays subsp. mayse0
- Treatment
- rye cover croppinge0
- Outcome
- yieldse0
Not reportedComparatorDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“No tillage and rye cover cropping did not serve as effective climate change adaptations in regards to corn or soybean yields.”
Claim · model-written summary
Authors speculate that rye reduced soil water available to the next corn crop.
- Taxon
- cornZea mays subsp. mayse0
- Treatment
- rye cover crope0
- Outcome
- yield decreasee0
- Qualifier
- reduced the amount of soil water availablee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“We speculate that this yield decrease occurred because the rye cover crop reduced the amount of soil water available to the following corn crop.”
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